What Lies Ahead as Argentina Navigates a Multifaceted Political and Economic Crisis?
Since March 2018, Argentina has experienced two episodes of serious financial instability brought on by declining confidence at home and abroad in the government’s ability to manage its twin budget and current account deficits. Serious market runs on the Argentine peso were brought under control only by urgent government intervention and by the successful negotiation of a $57 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund that will require a faster fulfillment by the government of some difficult fiscal and monetary goals. The Argentine peso has depreciated by almost 100% since the beginning of 2018 and inflation could hit 45% this year. Most concerning is the current recession that could see the Argentine economy contract by 2.5% in 2018.
At the same time, President Macri continues his serious efforts to bring about a change in Argentina’s political and social culture. His commitment to address the chronic corruption that has characterized Argentina for decades is having itself an expected destabilizing impact. The ambitious scope of reforms being promoted by the national government at many levels is the necessary beginning of what, if it is to be successful, will take many years to complete. Some of this is a positive sign that things may finally change in a country that has been racked by serious crises regularly over the past 90 years. What policy successes have we already seen? What can be expected in the next year as the country approaches Presidential elections in October/November 2019?
Join us for a discussion of these subjects on Monday, October 29 from 11am – 12:30pm with three leading economic experts on Argentina: Emilio Ocampo, Sebastian Galiani, and Silvina Vatnick.
This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.