What is the Road Ahead?
Korea Chair Snapshot
January 6, 2016
- The UNSC will convene this week, issue statements and eventually authorize a new UNSC resolution calling for ramped up sanctions. The past three resolutions have not, however, impeded the nuclear program or deterred more tests.
- The U.S. will throttle up sanctions based on the new UNSCR and the Presidential Executive Order 13687 issued on January 2, 2015 following the Sony hack to impose more financial sanctions on accounts and individuals involved with proliferation, cyber-attacks, and human rights.
- The U.S. may seek immediate trilateral meetings with its key allies Japan and Korea, as well as pursue better cooperation on missile defense and intelligence sharing with Seoul and Tokyo.
- There will be anger and disappointment expressed by them and others, but remains to be seen whether we will see a change in Chinese behavior. The Chinese foreign ministry stated that they were not informed of the test in advance. A good albeit lofty outcome would be for China to embargo economic activity in response to the test, and temporarily close off airspace to North Korean flights.
- In terms of diplomacy outside of UN actions, the nuclear test provides an opportunity for the Six-Party Talks to consider organizing China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the U.S. to discuss steps forward and potential contingencies.
- Once a UNSCR is put forward, North Korea is likely to respond in some manner to the UNSCR when it is announced, which may lead to a new round of provocations.